118
FXUS64 KMEG 052340 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
540 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IF A STRONG STORM DEVELOPS.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
ANOTHER PLEASANT, ALBEIT A BIT WARM, DAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
A FEW CLOUDS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INTO TOMORROW, WITH A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
ABOVE-NORMAL RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SPANNING THE MID 70S TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY FRIDAY, WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WILL BE OUR
INSTABILITY, WITH CAMS JUST NOW REACHING THE FRIDAY PERIOD NOT AS
EXCITED AS SOME OTHER GUIDANCE. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, SO IF WE CAN CAPITALIZE ON
ANY INSTABILITY ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BEST POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR TO BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, WITH THE HIGHEST JOINT PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE TN RIVER
AND NE MS / NW AL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT
THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY, A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL USHER OUT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THERE APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH CHANCE (>70%) OF AN AREA-WIDE FREEZE WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (40-60%) OF A HARD FREEZE (<28 DEGREES) FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS WEST TN AND NE MS. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE VFR CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
22Z HRRR DEPICTS PRE-SUNRISE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE ARKLAMISS,
SOUTHWEST OF CKM AND NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IN
CENTRAL MS. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TAF
SITES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 7KT AT MEM THURSDAY EVENING, AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MINRH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40% AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO MINOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD ARISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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