551
FXUS64 KMEG 060455
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SOME LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH
THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IF A STRONG STORM DEVELOPS.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AS OF 10 PM, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS JUST SOUTH OF BLYTHEVILLE, AR. THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THIS
FRONT AIDED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
MILD SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE BEGINNING FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN LEVEL 1&2 OUT OF 5, MARGINAL AND SLIGHT
RISKS RESPECTIVELY, FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS STILL LEAVE QUESTIONS
REGARDING INTENSITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL CASE OF HIGH
SHEAR, LOW CAPE WHICH IS COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND >30KTS OF BULK SHEAR FROM
THE LREF HAVE GONE DOWN SOME FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED (50-80%) FOR FRIDAY EVENING IN NORTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST AL. CAMS ARE JUST STARTING TO REACH THE FRIDAY EVENING
PORTION, BUT AT LEAST ON THE HRRR, FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY
FAVORING MIDDLE TN FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH PROBABILITIES AND
DECENT MODEL SPREAD WARRANT CONTINUED MONITORING. NONETHELESS, IF
SEVERE WEATHER DOES MATERIALIZE ITS LIKELY PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL AS A BRIEF, SPIN UP
TORNADO EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE QUICK NATURE OF THE LINE, AND
LIGHT SHOWERS IN NATURE ON SUNDAY, QPF FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. A RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT WITH A POLAR
AIR MASS BEHIND IT, TAKES AIM AT THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY NOT EXCEED 50 DEGREES IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BEFORE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MONDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS ON MONDAY, LIKE NORTHWEST TN AND NORTHEAST
MS, WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE ( TEMPS <28F)
OF THE SEASON. VERY LITTLE WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S BEFORE ANOTHER FREEZING NIGHT FOR TUESDAY. OUR
COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY MIDWEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
03Z HRRR AND 00Z HREF ARE SHOWING AN UPTICK IN OVERNIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT TUP AND MKL, NORTH OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MS. SURFACE WIND FIELDS SOUTH OF A MEM-
MKL LINE WILL REMAIN WEAK AND LIKELY WILL BE MOST INFLUENCED BY
NOCTURNAL COOLING AT MKL AND TUP. MKL FOG CHANCES MAY BE AIDED A
WEAK PACIFIC FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. FOR MEM, URBAN
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OVERNIGHT FOG
CONCERNS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED BY 15Z THURSDAY, AS VFR AND AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FOR
THE THURSDAY EVENING MEM INBOUND PUSH, LIKELY IN EXCESS OF THE 7KT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THRESHOLD.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH MINRH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40% AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO
MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD ARISE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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