498
FXUS64 KMEG 071123
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF SEVERE WEATHER
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FOR BOTH DAYS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT IS UNDERWAY. A WARM FRONT HAS
NOW STALLED OUT PARALLEL TO JACKSON, TN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMER NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL TAKE AIM AT THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS APPEARS WEAK IN
NATURE AND DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL IT NEARS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, HENCE THE SLIGHT RISK BEING REMOVED FROM OUR
AREA. THIS FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRIMARILY BRING GUSTY
WINDS, LEAVING OUR IMMEDIATE AREA LARGELY DRY WHILE IMPACTING
MIDDLE TN. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE CROSSING
INTO MIDDLE TN, BUT THIS SOLUTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED
AMONGST THE CAMS.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO STALL ALONG I-40, AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON THE WAY WILL CAUSE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
TO BECOME RE-MOBILIZED AND INITIATE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A DEEPENING
CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, FORCING ALONG THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD INITIATE A SECONDARY ROUND OF STORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS AFTER THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE AIR MASS
WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERITY, BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
SATURDAY EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BOTH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
FRONTAL STRENGTH, TIMING, INITIATION, AND MODEL DISCREPANCY.
NONETHELESS, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER, IT WILL
THREATEN DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE LINEAR STORM MODE AND
AVAILABILITY OF WIND SHEAR. LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A THIRD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH
POLAR AIR BEHIND IT. STRONG CAA WILL BRING OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE
OF THE SEASON ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES ON MONDAY ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-
80%) ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND LESSER ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY THE
PROBABILITIES ARE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES >70% ACROSS ALMOST EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH MEM
AND MKL AROUND SUNSET. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT. COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EAST OF MKL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% EACH DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KICK OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
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