621
FXUS64 KMEG 071717
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF SEVERE
WEATHERFOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES) OF THE SEASON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. WE ALREADY HAVE SOME WAA SHOWERS LIFTING NE
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
MATERIALIZES. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY FIRE UP UNTIL THE
CONVECTION HAS EXITED INTO MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS IS QUITE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE OUTRUN BY THE ACTUAL CONVECTION. IN
OTHER WORDS, STORMS MAY BE OUT OF HERE BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST STORM MODE IS
LINEAR BUT NOT REMOTELY ORGANIZED; MOST OF THESE WILL BE WEAK
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AROUND 3PM,
ENDING BY 9PM AT THE LATEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IF WE DO GET SOME OUTLIER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE VERY SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. THIS SAME
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WHERE IT HAD STALLED FARTHER NORTH, WHICH WOULD'VE PUT
THE MID-SOUTH IN ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT GOT ITS SECOND WIND. SINCE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH NOW AND WE WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY MUCH NIL. POPS HAVE ALSO DECREASED BELOW 20% FOR SATURDAY
AS WELL WITH THIS CHANGE.
A VERY COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IS ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. STRONG CAA AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO ABSOLUTELY PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WE HAVEN'T HAD A TRUE HARD FREEZE YET THIS
SEASON, SO THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OFFICIAL KILLING FREEZE THAT
ENDS THE GROWING SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S PRETTY
MUCH AREAWIDE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL BARELY
CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S ON MONDAY AS THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE HUDSON
BAY. THIS PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO WE'LL MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL PRETTY QUICKLY BY MIDWEEK WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS OFF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH
ISOLATED SHRA. THINK IMPACTS RELATED TO SHRA WILL BE MINIMAL, SO
KEPT MAINLY AS PROB30S OR TEMPO GROUPING FOR AIRPORTS. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT BY THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR MKL AND TUP. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT FOR WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VEER AROUND THE HORN UNTIL THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OFFER MUCH OF ANY WETTING RAIN
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. FORECAST QPF IS LESS THAN
0.1 INCHES. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK THE DRIEST BY FAR
WITH MINRHS FALLING BELOW 35% BOTH DAYS, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE DANGER. HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN MIDWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA
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