709
FXUS64 KMEG 081741
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW 28 DEGREES) OF THE SEASON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS LIFTED, OR HAS BEGUN TO LIFT, ACROSS THE AREA
AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY STILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, BUT FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT, WHICH HAS
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH AND PASS JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, BUT THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH ONLY A 15% - 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR, ENDING A
WEEKS-LONG STREAK OF MILD WEATHER. A FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE RAIN TONIGHT, WILL ENTER THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG CAA AND/OR CLOUD COVER.
THEREFORE, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE DIURNAL MAX ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40S AND LOW
50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS SUGGESTED BY MUCH OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST, BEING REPLACED BY A STRONG AREA OF RIDGING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AFTER SUNSET, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH NBM SHOWING A 80%-90% CHANCE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS IN THE 20S AND THE FIRST HARD
FREEZE THIS SEASON. STRONG NORTHERLIES AND INCREASINGLY HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THIS FORECAST TO PERSIST MONDAY WITH
BLUSTERY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20S.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY A AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP
THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND IN AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. STARTING TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHERLIES BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS ON TUESDAY
COULD ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST CONTAINING
20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TARGETED WIND
ADVISORY COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST TRENDS UP. REGARDLESS,
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 60S AND
70S WEDNESDAY WITHIN THIS REGIME AND WARM INTO THE MID 70S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. BUT ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS TIME AS A
NEW TROUGH TO OUR WEST ENTERS THE FORECAST. THIS TROUGH COULD
PROVE TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BUT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. SO, FOR NOW,
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NW.
A POST FRONTAL STRATOCU DECK WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT BY THE END OF
THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
RELATIVELY HUMID AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 20 FT WIND FORECAST
INCREASING ABOVE 10 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALONGSIDE
A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN BE
KNOCKED DOWN BELOW 40 PERCENT, AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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