999
FXUS64 KMEG 091111
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
511 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES 28 DEGREES OR LESS) WILL IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAKING
TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA WITH OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON OCCURRING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE INCOMING POLAR AIR MASS
WILL BRING VERY COLD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TO
START THE WORK WEEK. STRONG CAA ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE OF A RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL PLUMMET TUESDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AND UPPER 20S TO THE WEST. WITH THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP, SOME AREAS IN THE EAST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO
ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S AND MID TEENS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, THOUGH REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL, AS THE REGION MOVES TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL WARM US UP WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 50S. THE RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY HINTING AT SOME MEDIUM
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-70%) OF SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 25 MPH
AND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH (WHICH IS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND
PORTIONS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY MEDIUM THAT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET, AS PROBABILITIES (40-70%)
REMAIN HIGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE THE MOST
EXCITING THING OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AT
THE EARLIEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-17KTS THIS MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS, LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL APPROACH MEM AND MKL BY MIDDAY, BUT SHOULD
THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST. NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING EXTREMELY DRY AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK THE DRIEST BY FAR WITH MINRHS
FALLING BELOW 40% BOTH DAYS WITH ELEVATED WINDS LEADING TO
ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
ABOVE 40% AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
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