827
FXUS64 KMEG 091736
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES 28 DEGREES OR LESS) WILL IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAKING
TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. ONE OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
MEANINGFULLY REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST IS ALSO PRODUCING A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, PRODUCING SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CAN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE TROUGH AXIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. HREF MEAN 1-HOUR QPF
HAS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-LOW WITHIN
STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DIVE SOUTH, LIKELY COUPLED TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS IT FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH TONIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
MID- SOUTH IN A RELATIVELY STRONG AREA OF DPVA TOMORROW MORNING WHERE
SOME HREF MEMBERS PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
TENNESSEE. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE IN OUR AREA THAT COULD PROHIBIT FLAKES FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST FOR SOME FLURRIES MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH, HAVE REFRAINED FROM INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST
WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE AND WILL WAIT UNTIL A CLEAR MESO-LOW HAS
DEVELOPED TO INCLUDE.
REGARDLESS OF ANY FLURRIES, TONIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST TASTE OF
ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON. LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 25 F TONIGHT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND WILL
ALSO BRING WIND CHILLS BELOW 20 F, DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 12 F
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 40S, AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, COULD STAY IN THE UPPER 30S
IN SOME AREAS MONDAY. A SIMILAR FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS
BLUSTERY, EXISTS FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
LOW 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SLIDE TO OUR EAST AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20 - 25 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT NEITHER
SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS WILL BREACH THE 25/40 MPH THRESHOLDS FOR
A WIND ADVISORY AS NBM PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH BEING AT OR UNDER
30%.
A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE OVER TO END THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLIES
HELP ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLES DEPICT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD THEN EXIT INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, MODEL VARIABILITY
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM,
SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH REACHING THE REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH NBM GUIDANCE ALREADY PAINTING POPS
IN THE 30% - 40% RANGE NEXT SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF A SLOW TRACK BECOMES FAVORED AND STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALLOWED TO TAKE PLACE FOR LONGER, BUT THIS
ASPECT OF NEXT WEEKEND'S FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT TO DISCUSS ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BKN DECK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT MKL, (AND MAYBE A
FLAKE?!) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 25% - 35%
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL CONCERNS FOR A MORE TYPICAL FIRE
THREAT WITH SUCH A DRY, WINDY ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE, WILL REBOUND STARTING WEDNESDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, ELIMINATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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