266
FXUS64 KMEG 100443
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1043 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES) WILL IMPACT THE MID-
SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMUP TO THE MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS OFFICIALLY CLEARED THE MID-SOUTH THIS
EVENING. A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE HUDSON
BAY IS RACING INTO THE REGION AIDED BY BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS. THIS
CAA AIDED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOOKING TO SIT IN THE LOW TO MID
20S AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS. SINCE IT IS OUTSIDE OF THE LOCALLY DEFINED GROWING SEASON
(ENDED), FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL HARD FREEZE THAT POSES A
HAZARD TO ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO PROPER HEATING. REMEMBER TO
PROTECT THE FOUR PS FROM COLD WEATHER: PEOPLE, PIPES, PETS, AND
PLANTS.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK, PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL QUICKLY USHER THE CP AIRMASS OFF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PATTERN BECOMES DEAMPLIFIED AND NEARLY ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL. THERE'S VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY AS THINGS WARM BACK UP TO THE 60S AND 70S. FORECAST
SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A VERY LARGE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY, WHICH KICKS OFF A PRETTY
DRASTIC WARMUP FOR THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAKE A QUICK SWING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THIS TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, A COLORADO LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT
OCCLUDES ON ITSELF. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE ARKLATEX AND ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE 30-40% POPS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MID-
SOUTH. AS OF RIGHT NOW, GIVEN THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW'S
PLACEMENT, IT'S LOOKING FAIRLY BENIGN IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS BUT
PREPARE FOR A WETTER PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND REGARDLESS.
CAD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
OCCASIONAL GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY NEAR
MEM AND MKL LATE MORNING, BUT NO IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
DRY AND COLD AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE MID-SOUTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS LOOK THE DRIEST WITH MINRHS
FALLING BELOW 40% BOTH DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS, MINOR FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE MID WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page