848
FXUS64 KMEG 101612
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
- A HARD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES) WILL IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMUP TO THE MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S, TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
WARMING UNDER STRONG CAA. COLD AIR STRATOCU IS REDEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST TN AND NORTH MS WITH A FEW FLURRIES, MAINLY ALONG THE TN
RIVER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS PUSHING 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE RECORD RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAN LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
EXPECT NEAR RECORD LOWS WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST TN AND NORTH MS TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
WHERE WE COULD GET SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE MS VALLEY PROBABLY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. ONCE THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE ROCKIES MODELS TEND TO
DIVERGE. SOME MODEL RUNS CUT OFF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH
INTO AN UPPER LOW, WHILE SOME ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IT WILL
TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SORT OUT THE DETAILS BUT THE GENERAL
TAKE RIGHT NOW IS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ATTM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR, JUST A WIND FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS OR LONGER.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 18-22KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE GULF COAST, WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
DRY AND COLD AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE THE MID-SOUTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. TODAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK THE DRIEST WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 40 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH
GUSTY WINDS, MINOR FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE MID WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page