334
FXUS64 KMEG 111645
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS
WEEKEND WITH A WARMUP TO THE MID 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH
HAS CREATED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS
ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN PARTS OF NE AR. ADDED
POINSETT COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE WARMING THE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL FEEL
BRISK TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE
50S, OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY AND THE UPPER FLOW WILL BELOW MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
WINDY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SLACKENS. UPPER
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS NORTHWARD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
TENDS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW U.S. THIS UPPER LOW IS EJECTING OUT MORE
SLOWLY WITH EACH RUN WHILE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM RACES
EAST. CLUSTER ANALYSIS TENDS TO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT MORE OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND MILD, QUITE POSSIBLY
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH MORE OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AFTER. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED AS A MORE
ACTIVE SW UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY SET UP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY, S/SW WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO FALL BACK BELOW 10 KTS NEAR THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MINOR
FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE RISE THIS WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, BUT DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA
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