935
FXUS64 KMEG 120447
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1047 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING
BELOW FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S AND MID 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A POLEWARD RETREATING JET STREAM
AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND, AS
OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE UPPER LOW
COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE QPF SIGNAL IS TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN. TEMPERATURES DO NOT MODIFY MUCH ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARMTH.
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT ON
MONDAY, BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS STILL A HUGE
QUESTION MARK. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY HELD BACK OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, WHILE THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION PUSHES AN ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL, WHILE
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A WEAKER, SLOWER SYSTEM CLOSER TO MIDWEEK WITH
CONTINUED WARMTH. WHILE ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE HIGH INTER-MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. NBM IS WEIGHTED HEAVIER TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION, WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BUT LLWS WILL DEVELOP AS
2000 FOOT WINDS ACCELERATE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE SW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS. THE LLWS THREAT WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNRISE AS SURFACE
WINDS BECOME 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY REMAINING
ABOVE 35 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW TO MODERATE, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERALL BURNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GOOD TO MODERATE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK..
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AC3
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