973
FXUS64 KMEG 121725
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
NOSING NORTHWEST INTO THE OZARKS. LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT,
RADIATION FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND
WATER SOURCES, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 70S (~10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY). LOWS WILL PRIMARILY
BE IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER
THIS WEEKEND. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA, BUT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 25 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL WITH SIMILAR PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40
MPH. SHOULD THESE CONDITIONS COME TO FRUITION, A WIND ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, WINDS WILL BE MORE IN
THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN.
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONT IS NOT VERY
STRONG AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TAKE A MINOR STEP BACK SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL (MID 60S TO MID 70S).
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
GENERAL GUIDANCE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE
SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POLEWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. THAT MEANS
DRY WEATHER APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE GEFS IS SLIGHTLY
WETTER/COOLER THAN THE EPS, BUT NEITHER ARE HIGHLIGHTING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PROBABILITY
FOR 24-HR TOTALS EXCEEDING 1" BEGINS TO APPROACH/EXCEED 40%.
ANOTHER BIG QUESTION MARK FOR NEXT WEEK IS WITH TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE. BY MONDAY, THE
VARIANCE WITHIN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE INNER-QUARTILE RANGE
(25-75TH PERCENTILE) IS 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
THIS TREND CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR (TO SLIGHTLY
LARGER) RANGES ARE NOTED IN THE MIN TEMPERATURE PROGS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT MODEL VARIANCE
NEXT WEEK LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.
MJ
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS MEM AND
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ENHANCE RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT AT KTUP AND NEAR KMEM AROUND 09Z. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE LIMITED THIS
WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
50% IN MOST AREAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING GUSTY ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...DNM
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