091
FXUS64 KMEG 131647
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1047 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH HAS DISSIPATED WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO REAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST NBM PROPS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER PEGGED AT 60-85% RUN WOULD MEET THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOW WILL AID IN BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST LATE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THAT RANGE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO AROUND 5 KTS, WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
35 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LOW TO MODERATE. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL BURNING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GOOD TO MODERATE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
DICUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...CMA
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