168
FXUS64 KMEG 132312
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
512 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
PATCHY FOG OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH HAS DISSIPATED WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT S/SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO REAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST NBM PROPS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER PEGGED AT 60-85% RUN WOULD MEET THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOW WILL AID IN BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST LATE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE AT THAT RANGE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT JBR AND MEM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES COULD FALL BELOW 40% BY SUNDAY, BUT THESE
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...LZK
AVIATION...ANS
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