473
FXUS64 KMEG 151047
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS THE MID-SOUTH
REMAINS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
TEXAS / MEXICO BORDER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, EJECTING A COLD FRONT TO THE MID-SOUTH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (<10%) WITH THIS FROPA.
INSTEAD, EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S.
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE MID-
SOUTH. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE: THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS REGARDING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THE NBM IS DEPICTING A
10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON HOW SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRACKS, HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY VARY FROM
THE CURRENT FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH. COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
FALLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TREKS EAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY
DYNAMIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE GFS FAVORING A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE ARK-LA-TEX. THE LATEST GEFS PLACES A
20% CHANCE OF OVERLAPPING SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE SYNOPTICALLY IMPRESSIVE, THIS SYSTEM'S SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE LIMITED BY ITS TIMING, WITH
STORMS REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST: OVER THE
ARK-LA-TEX. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHES OF
CIGS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUD BASES AROUND 5 KFT, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. BY
18Z, WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. OVERNIGHT, A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BRING NORTHWESTERLIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
MINRH VALUES AROUND 55 PERCENT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
A MINIMUM THIS WEEKEND. A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KICK OFF
ON MONDAY, BRINGING WETTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB
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