406
FXUS64 KMEG 152329
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
529 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSIST TO MAINTAIN
OUR DRY AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY AND EASE AFTER SUNSET. THE MOISTURE PULL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT IS TO BE EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RAIN-FREE. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ITS PATH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY AS A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT. A LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH,
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE,
ENOUGH MOISTURE PULL WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE SHORTWAVE TRACK RESULTING IN MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION,
COVERAGE, AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
EMERGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODEL SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS ALSO AFFECTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD
COVERAGE AND RAIN COOLED SURFACES. WE ARE JUST GETTING INTO THE
RANGE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SO MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA ON SUNDAY, IS ANTICIPATED TO
RETREAT NORTH ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN WAA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE MID-
SOUTH KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TYPE OF FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES, QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ARE AROUND 1" WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS TO THE NORTH AND
SLIGHTLY LESSER TO THE SOUTH.
THURSDAY IS WHEN THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT
FROM THE PLAINS. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, THE
SPEED OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SLOWER AND NOT ACTUALLY
CROSSING THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO TIMING AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT, BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. NBM QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE FORECASTING 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5" FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LREF IS NOT FAVORABLE OF THIS OUTCOME AS PROBABILITIES OF >3"
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ARE 25% OR LESS. THE LONG TERM FORECAST
REMAINS OF MANY POSSIBILITIES, BUT IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE END TO
THE WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. LLWS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY 8-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES (50-60%) WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS RETURN FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING IN MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS AND DRY SOILS COULD
LEAD TO A MINIMAL GRASS FIRE THREAT, BUT THE ELEVATED RH VALUES
ARE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE OVERALL CONCERN LOW. A WET AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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