014
FXUS64 KMEG 160455
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
AS OF 10PM, A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH MOST AREAS FALLING TO THE 30S BY
THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FROPA: IN THE 60S AND 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING ELEVATED MOISTURE TO THE MID-SOUTH.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. A SHARP
WARMING TREND WILL BE EVIDENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY (81F) ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST AT 80 DEGREES FOR TUPELO. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EMERGE ON THURSDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EJECT FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION, BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE TRAINING
CONVECTION, LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW,
THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER TWO INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS
NEAR. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
ON FRIDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WILL
SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. LLWS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY 8-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page