186
FXUS64 KMEG 191801 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.
- ANOTHER UNSETTLED PATTERN EMERGES NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE /
MISSISSIPPI BORDER THIS MORNING, KEEPING OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. TODAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON LOCATION DUE TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
ELSEWHERE IN CONUS TODAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
CHURN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SEND THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING NORTH OF I-40. SEVERE STORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE HAMPERED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER, LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCES FINALLY TAPER OFF
ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
NEXT WEEK, A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EMERGES AS YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A LEADING SHORTWAVE EJECTING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL ALLOW ELEVATED DEWPOINTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MANIFEST
ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FINALLY REACHES THE MID-
SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
OK/TX VICINITY EARLY TUESDAY AND TREK EAST. HOWEVER, LARGE SPREAD
IN THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT HARD TO
PINPOINT WHERE AN ASSOCIATED WARM-SECTOR WILL EMERGE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, KEEP SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOW (<10%) FOR
TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE SHAKES OUT OVER THE COMING
DAYS, SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE. THE GOOD NEWS: A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AFTER TUESDAY'S
SYSTEM, RETURNING OUR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-NORMAL.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A MESSY AVIATION WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM, CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE, WITH VFR
PREVAILING BY MIDAFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OR ALL OF THIS EVENING'S MEM INBOUND PUSH.
BY 06Z, A MARITIME WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSH NORTH TOWARD MEM/MKL,
WHILE ELEVATED MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
INVERSION. GUIDANCE HAS VARIED ON THE IFR POTENTIAL IN THE 06Z-10Z
TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS OFTEN CONDUCIVE
FOR IFR, THE 18Z TAFS HEDGE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AFTER 09Z
THAN THE MOST RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE LAMP/NBM GUIDANCE. ONCE THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF MEM/MKL, CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS SHOULD
BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY SHRA. SHRA SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 12Z. THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY CLEAR JBR BY THE TIME
SHRA ARRIVES, RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT JBR AFTER
12Z.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT
WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JAB
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