352
FXUS64 KMEG 231115
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
515 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WRAP UP OUR WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
MONDAY, LASTING INTO TUESDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ROUND OUT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5 MPH TONIGHT LIMITING THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS RESULTING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO WRAP UP OUR WEEKEND.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS SETTING UP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT SHEAR PROFILES AND LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES
INDICATE A LOW END CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM FROM EAST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
AROUND 50KTS SHOULD HELP STORMS MAINTAIN HEALTHY UPDRAFTS WELL
AFTER PEAK HEATING. SPC'S MONDAY OUTLOOK INCLUDES A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE MS DELTA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING AN END
TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD
LINGER IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNSET. STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS (UP TO 1.5 INCHES). MOST OF THE REGION CAN
EXPECT AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES.
A DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. FOR THOSE WITH
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY, PLAN FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
SIRMON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED NE WINDS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE BKN/OVC LOW CEILINGS IN THIS TAF SET AT MEM, JBR,
AND MKL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH
MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40% THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC
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