862
FXUS64 KMEG 252308
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
SUNNY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ON THANKSGIVING MORNING.
- THERE IS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID- SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A FAIRLY DREARY DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH SOME
LINGERING DRIZZLE. CLOUDS REMAIN DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
BUT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD, EXPECT TO SEE
SOME CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS NOT CLEARED OUR AREA YET, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE TN/AL LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
EASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO TICK UPWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST OF THE
MID-SOUTH OUTSIDE OF NE MS HAVING A 40 - 60% OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL HAVING > 80%. WHILE WE LIKELY WILL NOT REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON INTO
TOMORROW AND ANY LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AND 40S TO 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THANKSGIVING MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE CHILLIER SIDE OF
THINGS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING.
THOSE WITH ANY OUTDOOR PLANS ON THANKSGIVING MORNING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO BUNDLE UP.
BY THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S., BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON / EVENING TO SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME FOR THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW OUTLIERS STILL HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. WHILE TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WERE A BIT BULLISH OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, THESE AMOUNTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO BE CLOSER TO THE
1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO 50S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 30 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PLAINS HIGH AND A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS (10-15KTS) WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NOT RETURNING UNTIL SATURDAY.
DESPITE MINRH VALUES FALLING BELOW 40%, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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