493
FXUS64 KMEG 260506
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1106 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY THROUGH T HE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING.
- THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-
SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY COOLING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT EARLIER TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER, REINFORCING FRONT ON ITS
WAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED FOR THE COMING DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY WHERE WINDS COULD GUST ABOVE 30 MPH
BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEHIND IT, A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS,
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A 60% - 80% CHANCE OF SUBFREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH EXITS THE CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE WILL THEN EXIT THE
ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY AS IT TRAVELS EAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE LOW. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. NBM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THROWING
AROUND THE IDEA OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BELOW 700 MB REMAINING AT OR BELOW 0 C
IS TOO LOW TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RISES EXPONENTIALLY FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT A
COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS,
SWEEPING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GEFS AND
GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS DISPLAY A LOT OF DISCONTINUITY REGARDING HOW
FAR THE FRONT MAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. IF THE FRONT
WERE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, THE FORECAST WOULD BE DRY BY
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT SOME MODELS STALL THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MID-
SOUTH OR TO OUR WEST. THIS SECOND SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIPITATION
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A QUICK BURST OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN TO EVEN A STRONG COASTAL LOW OVER THE
GULF. REGARDLESS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW BEYOND
SUNDAY TO PROVIDE AN EXACT FORECAST ON PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT
WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING FORECAST
PERIODS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE (90%) THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 30 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PLAINS HIGH AND A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS (10-15 KTS) WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RELAX TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30%
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
BLUSTERY WEDNESDAY WITH 20 FT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE LOOKING TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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