870
FXUS64 KMEG 080444
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1044 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL END EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND USHER IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THIS WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S MONDAY AND MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LOWS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE MID-
SOUTH CURRENTLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE LEADING JET
STREAK. DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, BEFORE EXITING THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS REACHING INTO THE LOW 30S AND 20S
TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH
MID-WEEK ALONGSIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S, POTENTIALLY BREACHING 60 ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS AIR MASS WILL BE OF POLAR ORIGIN, AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW A MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD (15%).
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PLUMMET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 F ARE ALREADY
ABOVE 60% FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS. LREF PROBABILITIES ARE SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH
WITH ONLY A 40% CHANCE OF LOWS BENEATH 20 F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
SUGGESTING DISCREPANCIES IN THE FORECAST REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE IT. IF TEMPERATURES DROP AS MUCH AS
THE NBM IS SUGGESTING, ENOUGH WIND WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND APPROACH THE NEED
FOR COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS, NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO
HARBOR SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE MAY SEE THROUGH THIS WINTER.
SO, PAY ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
ENSEMBLES TRY TO EVENTUALLY BRING IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE
WEST BEYOND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO RISE
DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. THEREFORE, A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AFTER NEXT SUNDAY IS
IN THE CARDS BUT THE ARRIVAL AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY WARMER WEATHER
IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO OUR NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE ABSENT FROM
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90-100%) FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT JBR AND MEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND AT MKL
AND TUP TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH MINRH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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