370
FXUS64 KMEG 082349
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
549 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
GOES NIGHT/FOG PRODUCT STILL INDICATES LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SLOW TO
ERODE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM CAMS
REMAIN MIXED ON WHETHER CLOUDS WILL COMPLETELY ERODE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND NAMNEST FAVOR CLOUDS
FILLING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT, CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR NO OTHER CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW GRADUAL WAA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER
50S.UNFORTUNATELY, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STICK AROUND FOR
LONG AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EVENTUAL FROPA
WILL OCCUR BY MIDDAY WITH COOLER AIR FUNNELING INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
ELSEWHERE IN CONUS ON FRIDAY, A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CONUS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERLY EJECTION OF
THIS AIRMASS, MEANING THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL LOCALLY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS LOWS DROP TO
THE LOW 20S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH WITH MEM/MKL EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
SCATTERING WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT MEM/MKL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DROPS
TO MVFR AT MEM THROUGH 04Z. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 09Z,
LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE CIGS QUICKLY ERODE UP
TO VFR. TUP WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DROP TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN ALSO
ERODING UP TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AT MEM/MKL/JBR
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH MINRH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT 20FT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB
UPDATE...CJC
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