324
FXUS64 KMEG 091801
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES
OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK, AS CALM WINDS SETTLE IN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, APPROACHING
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BENIGN
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ARCTIC
AIR REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SATURDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY,
AT LEAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE BACKED BY
A COLDER AIRMASS, PRIMARILY TAKING AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 07Z NBM MAXT ARE IN THE UPPER QUARTILE
RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND APPEAR TOO WARM, GIVEN NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER. OFFICIAL MAXT GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED CLOSER TO THE NBM MEAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ROUGHLY 24 HOURS LATER. THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC
AIR ISN'T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS GUIDANCE DEPICTED SEVERAL DAYS
AGO, BUT IT TAKES A MORE DIRECT PATH TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AND IS
BACKED BY A 1042MB PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER FAR NORTHEAST AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHWEST TN SUNDAY MORNING. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN AND BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS.
AT THIS TIME, NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE OVERLAP OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND QPF IN
FUTURE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LIFTS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
CEILINGS ARE SCATTERING OUT AS OF 18Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BKN MVFR IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT THINGS ARE MIXING OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE WIND IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRE-FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS WILL INDUCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS
AROUND 50 KTS STARTING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
(LIKELY A DRY COLD FRONT), GRADIENT WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 40 TO 55 PERCENT. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRY AND COLD DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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