993
FXUS64 KMEG 092345
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
- BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SUNDAY
MORNING. MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, AS CALM WINDS SETTLE IN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BENIGN
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ARCTIC
AIR REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SATURDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE
TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY,
AT LEAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE BACKED BY
A COLDER AIRMASS, PRIMARILY TAKING AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 07Z NBM MAXT ARE IN THE UPPER QUARTILE
RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND APPEAR TOO WARM, GIVEN NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND BROKEN CLOUD COVER. OFFICIAL MAXT GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED CLOSER TO THE NBM MEAN.
FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ROUGHLY 24 HOURS LATER. THE CORE OF THIS ARCTIC
AIR ISN'T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS GUIDANCE DEPICTED SEVERAL DAYS
AGO, BUT IT TAKES A MORE DIRECT PATH TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AND IS
BACKED BY A 1042MB PRESSURE RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER FAR NORTHEAST AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHWEST TN SUNDAY MORNING. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN AND BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS.
AT THIS TIME, NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST, AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER
AIR. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE OVERLAP OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPS AND QPF IN FUTURE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LIFTS TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80-90%) FOR VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE ELEVATED
WINDS ALOFT PRODUCING LLWS TONIGHT. WE HAVE CONTINUED LLWS
MENTION AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS 2000FT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 50 KTS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER W/NW WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 40 TO 55 PERCENT. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRY AND COLD DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC
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