585
FXUS64 KMEG 111324
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
724 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 723 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY TO NEAR-NORMAL BY TUESDAY,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
AS OF LATE THIS EVENING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING OVER
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR THURSDAY
TO KICK OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S. THANKFULLY, AN ALTO CIRRUS DECK WILL HINDER A
PRIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
PLUNGE MUCH FURTHER. THE COOL MORNING WILL REBOUND RATHER QUICKLY
AS A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH WILL CENTER OVER THE AREA WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTLING IN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS
WELL AS KNOWN NBM COOL BIAS.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND A
REINFORCING FRONT IS OF ARCTIC NATURE AND WILL BRING A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF RAIN (20-50%) GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING RAIN ON
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTROID OF THIS AIR
MASS IS PROJECTED TO REACH 1040MB CENTERED OVER IOWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING STRONG CAA
AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE SUB-FREEZING AREA WIDE. AREAS
ALONG THE TN/KY AND AR/MO BORDERS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS
WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS WILL MAKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND EVEN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WITH EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES OF SINGLE DIGIT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THANKFULLY THIS COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL TRANSPORT WARM AIR TOWARDS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO CENTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE FORECAST, IT WILL ALSO BRING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE
AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90-100%) FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO
8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT MEM, JBR, AND EVENTUALLY
AT MKL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) THAT LLWS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NW ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING A BRIEF
INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 40% OR GREATER. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING VERY DRY AND COOL AIR.
MINIMUM RH VALUES BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL HOVER AROUND 30%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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