484
FXUS64 KMEG 251148
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW- FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MILD SEPTEMBER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE MID-SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. RECORD-TYING
AND RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN OUR CURRENT WARM SPELL.
FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DROP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3 TO
6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
REDUCE AT MEM/JBR/TUP, WITH JBR EXPERIENCING FOG. IMPACTS FROM
FOG AND MIST ARE EXPECTED TO START IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE,
ENDING BY 15Z-18Z AT ALL SITES. CIGS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS OF 11Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOING SO THROUGH
18Z. IMPACTS FROM CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR AT MEM/MKL AND
LIFR AT JBR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
CIGS BEYOND 18Z. HAVE OPTED TOWARDS A MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION,
KEEPING CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS ENDS UP
BEING TRUE, DROPS TO MVFR WOULD OCCUR AGAIN AT JBR/MEM AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT MKL/TUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ALL WEEK AS HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 60% TO 80% RANGE. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB
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