388
FXUS64 KMEG 251712
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ENCOMPASSING
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI. VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS AND REGIONAL METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS AND
SOME FOG ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH 10 AM TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STRATUS OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDED LOWER TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL NBM.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE ACHIEVING NEAR-RECORD HIGHS DIFFICULT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
(50-80% CHANCE) OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE COMING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE MID-SOUTH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW (LESS
THAN 20% CHANCE) OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POOR INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES AVERAGING IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY LATE MONDAY. FORTUNATELY,
THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK RETURNING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. GRADUAL AND BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WILL FAVOR ANOTHER
CLOUD DECK TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(70%) FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN AFTER 03Z.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
(50-80% CHANCE) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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