032
FXUS64 KMEG 260523
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IT'S A QUIET BUT MODERATELY WINDY NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. THE LATEST GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNEL REVEALS
LOW STATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALOFT, HIGH
CIRRUS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS
ARE NOTED ON RADAR, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LIGHT FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE
SHORT TERM THAT ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR. DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT LOW STRATUS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. NONETHELESS, WE ADDED LIGHT FOG TO AREAS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PERSISTENT. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO CALM UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
A SIGNIFICANT POLAR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, HOWEVER, LIGHTNING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT
EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A NEARLY 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
WILL OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 40 DEGREES ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ONLY LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S AND WIND CHILLS DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE MID-
SOUTH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A PESKY MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING WEST TO EAST. INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVAIL IN TAF. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT TUP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL IMPACT
JBR/MEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AIDED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH CHANCE
(80-90% CHANCE) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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