082
FXUS64 KMEG 261738
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING, BUT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MILD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
MID-MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
A MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY WITH CONFIDENCE
MODERATE TO HIGH (70-90% CHANCE) OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 12Z HREF INDICATES A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL
(50-80% CHANCE) FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY.
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE COMING
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN
OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POOR INSTABILITY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, THE PROBABILITIES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW (LESS THAN 20%) ON THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
AVERAGING IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY LATE MONDAY. THIS VERY COLD AIR
MASS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
RETURNING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
BACK INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER/THIN OUT AT THE START OF THE
18Z CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
ALL SITES. CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY AT
MKL AND JBR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT THESE SITES ENHANCING A
RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP. TEMPO'D IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THESE SITES.
FOR MEM AND TUP, ANOTHER LOW STRATUS EVENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH A
50-70% CHANCE OF LIFR CEILINGS AROUND 300 FT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME MIST MAY ENHANCE DEGRADING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ANY CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND
19/20Z TOMORROW AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE MORE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
(50-80% CHANCE) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO
45 PERCENT BY TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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