344
FXUS64 KMEG 270505
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1105 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT ON MONDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING, A COLD FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH, AND
CALM WINDS HAS BROUGHT A GREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR PATCHY TO DENSE
FOG OVERNIGHT. WE ARE MONITORING THIS PROGRESSION CLOSELY, AS
CONDITIONS (VISIBILITIES AT OR LESS THAN 1/4SM) MAY WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATELINE. A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN OVER THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE
EAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO SET IN, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SUNDAY MORNING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN AND BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES AS CURRENT LREF PROBS HAVE >70%
CHANCE OF >35 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIFT FROM THIS FRONT AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE SLIM TO NONE AS THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS
AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF >200 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND >30 KTS OF WIND
SHEAR.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES PAST THE MID-SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE, RESULTING IN NO MENTION OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING. OUR MESSAGING WILL THEN
TRANSITION TO BRISK CONDITIONS AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRESENT. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BEING IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 AND THE 40S
TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAY STRETCH WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE
BOARD.
THIS REALLY COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN OVER THE MID-SOUTH
BY FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 9ISH HOURS WILL BE THE
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
TUP IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DROPS IN VISIBILITIES WITH MKL/JBR
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT BY AROUND 09Z. KMEM IS THE ONE TERMINAL
WITH UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION FOR NOW. MKL AND
JBR BOTH HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING IFR AND LIFR BY
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR BY AROUND 18Z ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED BY THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 50%. 20 FT WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED, UPWARDS OF 20 MPH, ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page