435
FXUS64 KMEG 271757
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND
CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THESE MORNINGS.
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S
BEYOND MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A BLANKET OF THICK STRATUS COVERS THE MID-SOUTH AS OF 10 AM.
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE AMONGST WEST TENNESSEE,
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. VERY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON (12 PM) IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. A
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE BOOTHEEL, WHICH IS TO THANK FOR
THE SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF VISIBILITIES AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER.
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS ASCENT, LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL HINDER OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SOON BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ITS PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS ENHANCING
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES (>70%) ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS,
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND WEST TENNESSEE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 30MPH AFTER 9 AM TOMORROW. PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 35 AND NEAR 40 MPH TOMORROW, SO
THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY WAS HELD OFF FOR NOW. A LINE OF
SHOWERS, AND A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER (10-15% CHANCE), WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE GRADIENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS' ARRIVAL, THAT
MAY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GRADIENT WINDS AMONGST
THE LINE HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE TO ABOUT A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH. VERY COLD AIR RESIDES BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OVER WITH PRIOR TO COLD AIR
ARRIVAL. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ONCE THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY CHILLY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. PROBABILITIES FROM THE
NBM HAVE NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 28F AREAWIDE
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
THANKFULLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL ROUND OUT 2025, AND 2026 WILL START WITH A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JANUARY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS A DENSE COVER OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE. PIREPS CONFIRM THIS IS A VERY THICK CLOUD LAYER SO
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON TO LOW CEILINGS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS. IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY SLOW,
LIKELY NOT SCATTERING OUT UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET. ANOTHER LAYER OF
LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW, THOUGH MOST LIKELY NOT AS LOW AS THIS MORNING'S DECK.
THERE IS SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING IN AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE NEXT MEM
EXTENDED TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTH WINDS WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
TODAY BUT PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR MONDAY DIPPING THESE VALUES
BETWEEN 30-40%. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING
RAIN CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. A LIMITED
FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL LOOM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>051.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD
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