847
FXUS64 KMEG 280543
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- GUSTY WINDS, BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
- A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BOTH MORNINGS.
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,
BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S
BEYOND MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A THICK, LOW STRATUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHERE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DISPLAY BREAKS
IN THE STRATUS SHIELD, AIDED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF ADEQUATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT AS YESTERDAY'S WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE MID-
SOUTH AND STALLED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THIS PAST WEEK'S
PERSISTENT RIDGE HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN EAST, PAST OUR
AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
BUILD IN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN. AS WE MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FURTHER INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING >70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
BEGINNING AT NOON ON SUNDAY AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT, SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EQUATE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW AS INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
NONEXISTENT. HREF GUIDANCE HAS <20% OF 200 J/KG AND 30 KT
WIND SHEAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED GRADIENT WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS, WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR TOMORROW.
VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS STRONG COLD FRONT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES 30F+ ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH HEADING INTO MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE MID-SOUTH BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. AS WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY MONDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
20S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE STATELINE
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STRUGGLE
TO BREAK OUT OF THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE AN ALMOST RINSE AND REPEAT AS A COLD AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS FRIGID AIR WILL
NOT LINGER FOR VERY LONG AS UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST MOVING INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, STAY
TUNED ON FUTURE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF CIGS LIKELY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AROUND TO AFTER 13Z, WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS LINE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-LIVED CATEGORY
DROPS DUE TO -SHRA. CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SHOULD RETURN TO VFR NEAR
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. MINRH VALUES WILL DIP BACK BELOW 40% THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THUS FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS NOT A CONCERN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MSZ001-007-010.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
TNZ001-002-019-048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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