242
FXUS64 KMEG 292326
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
526 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING
WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEYOND
MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A 15 TO 25
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT'S PARENT LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WAS SO
STRONG THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL STRETCHING BACK AS FAR
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STILL BEING AFFECTED BY THIS GRADIENT IN
THE MID-SOUTH, BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BRINGING THE EFFECTS OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE FOREFRONT. AS OF 11 AM, WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE REGION STILL RESIDE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT ELEVATED WINDS MAY HINDER
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST REASONABLE
LOW TEMPERATURES (90TH PERCENTILE) FOR TUESDAY IS ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER, SO THE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD KEEP US WELL MIXED. THE
HIGHER WINDS HOWEVER WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND
NEAR 20 DEGREES. IF WINDS OVER PERFORM, A FEW AREAS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
HAVE A 35% CHANCE OR LESS OF EXPERIENCING SINGLE-DIGIT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SLIGHT WARMUP WILL
OCCUR DAILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MORNINGS WILL REMAIN COOL.
DIURNAL HEATING AND WIND TRENDS WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY, WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND WARMER, MOISTER
AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
SIGNIFICANTLY PLUMMETED DEW POINTS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THEN. SATURATION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME, WHICH APPEARS TO
BE A LEADING FACTOR IN THE MODEL DISCREPANCY FOR A SYSTEMS
APPROACH ON FRIDAY. THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE GFS
AS IT WANTS TO SURGE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INTO THE MS DELTA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
MODEST MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S) WITH MID 60S HIGH
TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE DISCREPANCIES, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
OF A WET START TO THE WEEKEND. LREF PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
WEATHER INGREDIENTS REMAIN OUT OF THE MEMPHIS CWA AND ARE LOW
(LESS THAN 10%) AS IT GETS CLOSE TO THE MID-SOUTH IN PROXIMITY.
NONETHELESS, PREPARE FOR SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE (15-20%) OF A THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 20 FT WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY
MORNING. WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS WERE BROUGHT TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HINDER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page