631
FXUS64 KMEG 302323
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN 20S AND 30S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY EACH AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 50S AND
60S THURSDAY.
- SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A 15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST TOWARDS THE MID-
SOUTH. WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED
ONCE AGAIN AND NOT ALLOW AMPLE HEATING WITH SUCH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL RESIDE IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND WINDY AND/OR
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY.
AS WINDS EASE AND ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER, DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS
WILL CARRY THIS BENIGN, HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MORNINGS WILL START OUT CHILLY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD
COVERAGE AND WIND FORECASTS DAILY, BUT DUE TO NBM DRY BIASES,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AFTERNOON HIGHS/MORNING LOWS CREEP
CLOSER TOWARDS NBM90/NBM25 VALUES RESPECTIVELY.
THURSDAY, VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL START A WAA REGIME. PRIOR TO
THE START OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT, DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
A STOUT, UNSATURATED ENVIRONMENT. IT IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT
STRONGER FLOW TO SATURATE THIS COLUMN.
THE SATURATION WILL BE THE KEY TO THE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH EVEN THE PROBABILITIES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE LOW (10%) DUE TO PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE. LACK OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY, WHICH ARE TWO CRUCIAL
FACTORS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST GUIDANCE, AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
RESOLVE THIS DRY AIR COLUMN. NONETHELESS, A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH INCREASES RAIN CHANCES, BUT
QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS AND COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT
AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY
DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW 30% ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS 5KT 20FT WINDS WILL PERSIST; BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD
HOVER BETWEEN 35-45%. WEAK, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THURSDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS
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