049
FXUS64 KMEG 311134
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN 20S AND 30S.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
50S AND 60S THURSDAY.
- SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW TONIGHT
AS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN, SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHIFT IN SURFACE PRESSURE,
ADVECTING WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE,
HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
BY FRIDAY, A DECAYING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD ZONAL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS OUT TO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE
DECAYING LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH THESE WINDS AS A LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE, DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH
FRIDAY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE AND EVENTUALLY ADVECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO BRING
MEANINGFUL QPF THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, DESPITE PAINTING
LARGE SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FOR 12+ HOURS. THE
PRIMARY REASON FOR THE LACK OF ACCUMULATION IS POOR DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LREF SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE DECREASING STEADILY ABOVE 850 MB, SUGGESTING THAT RAIN
PRODUCTION WILL BE SHALLOW. FURTHERMORE, THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME, WITH WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE DAYS PRIOR. THEREFORE, AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION ARE STILL ONLY
EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN .1" - .25" THROUGH SATURDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IN PREVIOUS RUNS, MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INSUFFICIENT SFC - 700 MB THETA E VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN SKINNY, CAPPED MUCAPE
PROFILES. LREF GUIDANCE HAS HARDLY SHIFTED FROM THIS DEPICTION
TODAY, RETAINING THE < 10% CHANCE OF 500+ J/KG MUCAPE JUXTAPOSED
WITH 30+ KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ON THE CONTRARY, NEW NAM GUIDANCE
TODAY SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO
PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE, ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME
SEVERE CHANCES AS BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ABOVE 30 KNOTS. THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WHERE FORECAST TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, NBM QPF AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
IN THE .25" - .50" RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
RAIN WILL LEAVE THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND IS FORECAST TO BRING
COOLER AIR TO THE MID-SOUTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BRIEFLY SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S ALONGSIDE HIGHS IN THE 50S. DRY, MILD WEATHER WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
LOW FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT,
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL ABATE HIGHER FIRE
CONCERNS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BRING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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