374
FXUS64 KMEG 311720
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON NEW YEARS DAY, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S OVER THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHERN WEST
TENNESSEE, TO THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
OFFSHORE. OVER THE MIDSOUTH, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY.
AN OPEN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS TO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AROUND MIDDAY. ABOVE
THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH,
WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40, WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPE MAY
REACH 150 J/KG.
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL SLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE ON SATURDAY, BRIEFLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH, CLOUDS AND
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ENTERS THE GREAT
PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
MIDWEEK BUT STILL BRING +10 TO +12DAM 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
PWB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH PRESENT HIGH
PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
MINIMUM RH WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL BRING LIKELY WETTING RAINFALL TO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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