089
FXUS64 KMEG 041110
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
510 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH NEXT WORKWEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BEGINNING
MONDAY.
- OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED RESULTING IN A WELL-SUITED ENVIRONMENT FOR AT
OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT. AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FURTHER AID IN TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
FALLING OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY
BORDER LIKELY SEEING LOWS IN THE MID TO 20S. RADIATIONAL COOLING,
CLEAR SKIES, AND CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN FEW SITES WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENVIRONMENT, FOG IS LIKELY TO SPREAD MAINLY OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW STAYING IN PLACE. FREEZING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST
LONG, HOWEVER, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN, INCREASING HIGHS MONDAY INTO
THE 60S. AS PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS INFILTRATE VERY WARM AIR IN, WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS HIGHS SOAR
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR-
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH BY THURSDAY.
COME WEDNESDAY, A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN PUSHING THE
MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERPOWER THIS COLD FRONT, KEEPING US HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH WARM
AND DRY FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. MOVING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
LIFTING OVER WEST TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE
MOISTURE PROFILE QUICKLY INCREASES AS FORECAST PWATS SURGE TO
AROUND 1.15", NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE PROFILE ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A GREAT SET-
UP FOR OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, RUN-TO-
RUN, WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE LATEST
CONSENSUS DISPLAYS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN CONUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME, VERY WEAK TROUGH AND TANDEM SURFACE LOW MOVING IN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOOKS TO ALMOST PHASE WITH THIS UPPER-LOW.
THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. GIVEN
HOW ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID WE WILL BE FOR EARLY JANUARY, THIS
COULD WARRANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW MUCH ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, WHAT WE
KNOW THIS FAR OUT IS, CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY IS INCREASING. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 40% SUNDAY,
THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM AS 20FT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. BEGINNING MONDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE >=50% AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WORKWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC
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