794
FXUS64 KMEG 042314
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
TUESDAY.
- OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY,
WITH A LOW (< 15%) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY, KICKING OFF AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND FOR EARLY
JANUARY. HIGHS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW 70S AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI,
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, TUPELO IS FORECAST TO
REACH 72°F ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD ONLY BE ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD 73°F SET BACK IN 2006. ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-SOUTH,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE
TO OVERCOME STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER MISSISSIPPI.
ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST,
IT WILL TRANSFORM TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT DOES
FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL RETREAT AS A WARM
FRONT OVER THE MID-SOUTH, ADVECTING MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE TO THE LOW 60S BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ON FRIDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST, BUT SEVERAL CAVEATS EXIST. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, AWAY
FROM THE GREATEST DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE WITH
ADVECTING APPRECIABLE CAPE INTO OUR REGION WITH THE GEFS ONLY
SHOWING A 10% CHANCE OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE REACHING INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WOULD YIELD A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I
WILL NOTE THAT THE LATEST EFI/SOT DID INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM
YESTERDAY, MEANING THERE IS A TAD MORE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, BOTH CSU AND CIPS MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW,
EXPECT THE END OF THE WEEK TO BE RAINY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER FRIDAY, A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL PICK AT AROUND 10 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM. IN
ADDITION, 20FT WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AEH
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