483
FXUS64 KMEG 050446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
- OUR NEXT SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH A LOW (< 10%) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE A QUIET FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR. A
BROAD RIDGE WITH TWO AXES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER
THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY TUESDAY.
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN AN EVEN WARMER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL
SURGE TO THE LOW 60S BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL
LARGELY GO UNNOTICED. HOWEVER, WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND LIGHT WINDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS HIGH (70-80%). THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE
LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL GO ZONAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT BACK
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OUR WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE THURSDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
WARM IN JANUARY WILL CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS.
DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS BACK TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY.
DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF DYNAMIC
ENERGY ALOFT, WE CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, I WOULD CAP THAT CONFIDENCE AT ABOUT 10%. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE
CONDITIONS WHICH IS THE TYPICAL SETUP FOR CONVECTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD NEED MORE OVERLAP BEFORE I'D BE TOO
CONCERNED WITH SEVERE WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL (IN THE 50S) ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. AS THIS COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER, WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20 KTS BEGINNING AROUND 04Z AT JBR/MEM. A LLJ ALSO LOOKS TO DIP
DOWN AROUND THIS SAME TIMEFRAME RESULTING IN LLWS AT JBR/MEM.
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
50 PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL TREND HIGHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. LIGHT WIND, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLEARING WILL FAVOR
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, 20FT WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN
5 AND 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS
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