548
FXUS64 KMEG 051756
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1156 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY, KICKING OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERNS THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAY OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW
70S. RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH
SEVERAL AREAS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI FORECAST TO EITHER TIE OR
BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LOSE STEAM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
WASHING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY, A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND TREK EAST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, IT WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THE
LEADING WAVE APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY, IT WILL LIFT
THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HOT AND
HUMID GULF AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PARENT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE MID-SOUTH WILL SIT IN A PRIMED WARM SECTOR
COMPOSED OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER THING OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE MID-SOUTH'S PLACEMENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
140KT 250MB JET STREAK. DESPITE THESE TWO FEATURES, GUIDANCE
REMAINS PESSIMISTIC IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, LIKELY KEYING IN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, KINEMATICS WILL BE PLENTIFUL
WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 KTS. THIS WILL YIELD A HIGH SHEAR, LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS NOT PECULIAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. TIMING
OF STORMS HAS TRENDED LATER, NOW FAVORING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE
COMING DAYS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE
REGION AND RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-NORMAL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
STRATUS IS ALREADY AFFECTING TUP, AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKING UP THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. TUP HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF DROPPING TO IFR ON TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING IS
BASED MOSTLY ON THE HREF, SINCE THERE IS A LARGE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SW
ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
50 PERCENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO A MINIMUM. RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
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