873
FXUS64 KMEG 062345
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
STRONG RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVELS IS YIELDING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH 10 AM OBSERVATIONS RUNNING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FURTHER NORTH, A
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS IN THE MID-SOUTH
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOSES ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK FRONT, BUT REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL MANIFEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TREK NORTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
TRANSFORM INTO AN OPEN WAVE. A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN
MATERIALIZES AT THIS TIME AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MID-
SOUTH ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO LIFT THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AT THIS TIME
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING ABOVE 60 DEGREES BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE LOW (< 5%).
THE GREATER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EMERGE ON FRIDAY AS THE
TRAILING TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY, BUT SEVERAL CAVEATS TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXIST. THE MAIN HINDRANCE WILL BE LACKLUSTER
INSTABILITY WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
REMAINING AROUND 10 PERCENT IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ONGOING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO LIMIT THE UPPER BOUNDS
OF INSTABILITY POTENTIAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST RRFS DEPICTS BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY THE
EVENING HOURS. IF LOWER END INSTABILITY VALUES DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A
BRIEF, SPIN-UP TORNADO. ONE THING TO NOTE: CSU AND CIPS MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS, ALONG WITH THE EFI/SOT DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SHIFT
IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. FUTURE OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAY TRIM THE SLIGHT RISK TO FOCUS MORE ON
OUR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
TRAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL MANIFEST IN
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS
FORECAST. FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO
OUR RECENT DRY SPELL. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY. THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SMALL WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE DENSE FOG OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE AXIS OF FOG WILL
ONLY AFFECT TUP, SO NO MENTION WAS MADE ELSEWHERE IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER, THIS WAS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE AXIS
OF LOW VSBYS IS TO MEM AND MKL AT THE ONSET, BUT OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE SITES. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON VISIBILITIES DROPPING
TO A HALF MILE OR LESS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TUP. NEARLY
ALL HREF MEMBERS EXCEPT THE FV3 SUPPORT THIS. SURROUNDING AL
OFFICES HAVE STARTED EARLY CHATTER ABOUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, SO
THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG BANK. WE MAY JOIN IN ON THIS
ADVISORY FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH TONIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHER THAN THE FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
ALL OTHER SITES WITH A CIRRUS SHIELD AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO A MINIMUM. GUSTY 20FT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY, WITH
WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD
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