729
FXUS64 KMEG 071835
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- RECORD-CHALLENGING WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS
WEEK. OUR WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
BY MID AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AND LOW
70S, DROPPING INTO THE 50S TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT, BRINGING HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND LIFTING THE STATIONARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HREF
SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHIFTS EAST WITH LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
EAST THURSDAY MORNING, DEVELOPING AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRAVEL NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ALONG WITH IT THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING 60+ F DEW POINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK (250 - 750 J/KG) MUCAPE AXIS WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY OVER THE ARKLATEX NORTH INTO MISSOURI AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT REGARDING CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH DISAGREEMENTS IN
COVERAGE. THE BIGGEST HURDLE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, LIMITING MID LEVEL
COOLING/ASCENT, AND DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, IF ANY SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES ABOVE
30 KNOTS WOULD ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THEREFORE, SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL IN EASTERN ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FLIES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
LARGER SCALE TROUGHING TO THE WEST IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MEANTIME, KEEPING THE AXIS OF 60+ F DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED WITH A LARGE 700 MB -
250 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
A COLD FRONT TO ITS SOUTH. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (500 -
1000 J/KG) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, BUT OVERNIGHT THETA E ADVECTION OVERCOMES THIS
ISSUE IN MOST GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT SOME
POINT FRIDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. STORM MODE WILL BE DICTATED BY BOTH THE
SURFACE LOW/FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VALUES ABOVE
40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT ALL OF FRIDAY, SUGGESTING AT LEAST A DAMAGING
WIND RISK. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND FAVORABLE SRH COULD BE DISPLACED FROM THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE TORNADO THREAT.
REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS LIKELY (> 80% CHANCE) THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE (1.5" - 1.75")
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NBM GUIDANCE ALREADY HAS A 60%+ CHANCE OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, WITH A 70% - 80%
CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD OCCUR IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS. AS SUCH, WPC HAS PLACED NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN
A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY.
THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS PHASES WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND A DRY PATTERN WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A
STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TUP OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS GOING CALM. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80%) THAT DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT OR NEAR TUP, WHERE THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN. DENSE FOG COULD SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND AFFECT MKL,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH LOWER AT MKL.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL INCREASE WINDS AT ALL SITES, WITH GUSTY SW WINDS PERSISTING
INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHRAS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 30% WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
20 FT WINDS. 20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
THURSDAY, BUT WETTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN
TANDEM, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO
NOT SEE RAIN, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 50% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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