813
FXUS64 KMEG 082351
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AS HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE
TODAY AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN PLACE TOMORROW.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, QUICK
SPIN-UP TORNADOES ARE A SECONDARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE PLAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING. THROUGH TODAY,
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH IT. ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION IS ALREADY BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME,
A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND SWING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
AFTER SUNSET, WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS AS A FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO STABILIZE AS THETA
E ADVECTION REMAINS. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MOST CAMS DEVELOPING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BY 03Z ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FLUX REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE AND QUALITY OF INSTABILITY, BUT AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. HREF MEAN
SBCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGHER VALUES IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
REMAIN ELEVATED. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH VALUES ABOVE 40 KNOTS. THESE POINTS ALL
LEAD TO A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WIND THREAT, CONTINGENT ON THE
COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS CONDITIONAL, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT TO OVER PERFORM THE MEDIAN FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IN THE LAST
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES AND NOW HAVE LARGE, CLOCKWISE TURNING
HODOGRAPHS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THESE WIND PROFILES
YIELD ESRH ABOVE 250 M2/S2, SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES, AND
DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF SPIN UPS DESPITE LOWER
INSTABILITY. IF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE REALIZED AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LARGER THAN EXPECTED, A HIGHER TORNADO
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS TONIGHT
AFTER 03Z THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE. SOME CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION
AFTER 06Z ALONG A CONFLUENCE/CONVERGE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THAT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
250 - 500 J/KG. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED, BUT
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAKING A STEP BACK, THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TOMORROW; A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM
YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE WHICH KEPT IT BACK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. THEREFORE, INSTABILITY COULD
BE DRIVEN FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL CONTAMINATE ANY ATTEMPTS AT RECOVERY. THE THINKING YESTERDAY
WAS THAT A FRONTAL LOW WOULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN TEXAS UNDERNEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK. WITH THE
CHANGES THAT HAVE HAPPENED TODAY, THE UPPER JET STREAK MAY NOT BE
PROPERLY ORIENTED ABOVE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
BUT RATHER BEHIND IT, DELAYING AND WEAKENING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, INSTABILITY MAY NOT RECOVER
AND CONVECTION WOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
NORTH OF MISSISSIPPI. CAMS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAVE THUS
STRUGGLED TO COME TO A SOLID CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO THESE
CHANGES AND OFFER MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS. THE MOST POPULAR
SOLUTION IS HAVING THE FRONT LEAVE THE REGION TO THE EAST
SOMETIME LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY. BUT
SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE RRFS, HRW FV3, AND HRW ARW ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER JET STREAK REACHES THE REGION. IN THE SECOND
SCENARIO, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND AND THE THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK.
ALONGSIDE THE SEVERE WEATHER, NAEFS PWAT AND WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
ABOVE 3" ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND CURRENT CAM/NBM GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO BRING 24 HOUR QPF VALUES ABOVE 2", LET ALONE 3",
ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO CONSTITUTE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND STEADY RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL REEVALUATE FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AGAIN
TONIGHT ONCE GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
COVERAGE OF HIGHER QPF.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY LEAVE THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY LOW DRAGS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
EAST. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
THEN BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEK, EFFECTIVELY DRYING OUT THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A VERY MESSY SET OF TAFS AGAIN THIS EVENING, STARTING OFF WITH
SOME WIND SHEAR. CIGS AT MEM, MKL AND JBR SHOULD BE MVFR THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TUP. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW (LESS THAN 30%) THAT ANY TERMINAL WILL EXPERIENCE ON
STATION THUNDER TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDER WOULD BE BETWEEN 03 AND 11Z. A LULL IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AT JBR, MKL AND MEM,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
SUNSET TOMORROW. DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONTINUOUS NEAR TUP. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. WIND
SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30 KTS POSSIBLE. POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD BE 5-10KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20 FT WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW TODAY, BUT WETTING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE IN TANDEM, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE RAIN, MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 50% THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AS
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