436
FXUS64 KMEG 091847
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS ALONG SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW (5%) CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING, AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MUCH DRIER
AIR RESIDES BEHIND THE FRONT, EVIDENCED BY UPPER 40 AND LOWER
50 DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT, A
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ANALYZED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHERE UP TO 250 J/KG OF MLCAPE ARE ON HAND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE I-
40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS 5% CHANCE FOR
A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT AND
PRECIP SHIELD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 RANGING
FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, AND FOG
PERSISTING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND DELIVER SOME MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH MINOR MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ENSUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN DEEP TROUGHING
ALOFT. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN AND DRIZZLE, LOW CEILINGS, AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
MISSISSIPPI ALONG A STALLED FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>70%) FOR
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING, AND
MODERATE (30-50%) FOR LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT FULLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CJC
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