261
FXUS64 KMEG 100522
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AROUND NOON SATURDAY.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CONVECTION HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MOVED THROUGH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WHICH ALLOWED PLENTY OF
RELATIVELY COOL, DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR TO FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THOUGH THERE IS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW SURGING UP FROM THE
GULF COAST AS OF 10PM, THE LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO AN OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF CIN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH, PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION FROM BECOMING ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AT THIS POINT, ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A RAIN SHIELD
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT HAS ESSENTIALLY PASSED AND QPF
TOTALS DIMINISHED TO 1-2", MAX.
AS THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PULL AWAY ON
SATURDAY, RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WITH A
CAA REGIME IN PLACE, EACH SUBSEQUENT MORNING POST-FROPA WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER THROUGH MONDAY. WE'LL WAKE UP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S ON MONDAY MORNING UNDER PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF BLIP ON WEDNESDAY. A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ENCOURAGING
A SHORT-LIVED 15% POP DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THESE WILL JUST
BE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY, MARKING A TRANSITION TO A
COOLER PATTERN.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK IS NOT
QUITE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN, BUT IT IS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR IN 2026. AGAIN, TWO DAYS OF CAA AND EVENTUAL
DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ONE THING TO NOTE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD OVERRUNNING TROUGH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT WE'LL ALREADY HAVE
COLD AIR IN PLACE LONG BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIP, WE MAY HAVE A
WINTRY MIX AND/OR SNOW ON OUR HANDS. JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES COME INTO VIEW.
CAD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IFR, AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH CIGS OUTSIDE OF NE
MS, WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING IN A MVFR DECK
TO JBR, MEM, MKL BY THE MORNING BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEARING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AREAWIDE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NW BY 15Z
AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA
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