271
FXUS64 KMEG 250056
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAVY SNOW, SLEET,
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- CRIPPLING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, LEADING TO WEATHER-RELATED POWER OUTAGES AND TREACHEROUS
TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM
ISSUED AT 656 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS MOVING EAST TOWARD
THE TX BIG BEND AT THIS HOUR. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER ANONYMOUSLY DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS AROUND
3,000 FT DEEP PER THE LATEST KNQA VAD WIND PROFILE, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KTS FROM 3-6 KFT AGL. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, LIFTING IT
ISENTROPICALLY OVER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
(700-500 MB) PLUME EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT. THIS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING (OLD SCHOOL Q-VECTORS) TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS A STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SWINGS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH.
WE CAN ALREADY SEE BROAD, SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA THE
10.7 UM WATER VAPOR LOOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
SIGNALING THAT ROUND TWO IS IMMINENT. RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THE NEXT
BATCH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING UP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
ONE AREA OF SLEET/SNOW IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AR WITH ANOTHER
WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN (AND MAYBE A FEW SLEET SHOWERS) TAKING
SHAPE IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE
WAVES WILL PHASE OVER THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE COMING HOURS (BY 9-
10 PM IN MOST AREAS), PROVIDING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF ICE
AND SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE INTENSIFYING WARM NOSE,
SNOW PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE (EVEN IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES) WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES
CREEPING NORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ROUND.
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS INTO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY (TN) MAY EXCEED 1/2" IN SOME AREAS. FARTHER NORTH,
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF SLEET IN AREAS
WHERE BANDS MAY DEVELOP. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE
MJ
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SNOW
HAS MOSTLY CHANGED OVER TO SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR, BUT THE PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SO FAR REPORTS HAVE RANGED FROM
2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AS OF 12PM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE SHEER SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM AND ITS RELATIVELY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS, EXPECT PRECIP
TO CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY NONSTOP THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS THE ACTUAL
FRONT CATCHES UP, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SORT OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL TIMES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO.
ADDITIONAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
ALONG THE MO/KY STATE LINES WITH AROUND 8" OF TOTAL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS START TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE MESSY FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO WAA IN THE MIDLEVELS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHT WARM NOSE FROM 700-850 MB. THIS WARM
NOSE ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT IT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE ICE CRYSTALS TO MELT ON THE WAY DOWN AND RE-FREEZE INTO ICE
PELLETS (SLEET) AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SLEET
CREATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ICE AND SNOW TOTALS EVEN
DURING THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS COMPACTING ON TOP OF
LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW.
A CRIPPLING ICE STORM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE IMPACTS OF 1"
OF ICE ACCRETION CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED; THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY
DEVASTATING FORECAST FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRAVEL. AS OF NOON
SATURDAY, THE FREEZING RAIN HASN'T REALLY EVEN STARTED YET. IT'S
BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR NORTH MS SO FAR BUT
THE MAIN P-TYPE IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. WITH A 36+
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE, A
THICK LAYER OF ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREES, POWERLINES,
SIDEWALKS, AND ROADS. THIS ADDED WEIGHT WILL TAKE DOWN NUMEROUS
POWERLINES AND TREES, LEADING TO EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES IN BITTER
COLD TEMPERATURES.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST IS THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN CRIPPLING ICE AND HEAVY SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
VERY HIGH IN 0.5+ INCHES OF ICE IN THE ICE STORM WARNING AND VERY
HIGH IN HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE MO/KY STATE LINES. IN BETWEEN THAT,
THINGS GET FUZZY DUE TO THE SLEET. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
THIS TRANSITION ZONE (INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO) ALONG THE I-
40 CORRIDOR IS A ~0.25" GLAZE OF ICE IN ADDITION TO 2-3 INCHES OF
SLEET. REGARDLESS, THESE SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE COMPOUNDING IMPACTS THAT LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL.
IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL LAST FAR BEYOND THE PRECIP CESSATION
TOMORROW NIGHT. THOUGH THE WINTER PRECIP WILL COME TO A CLOSE
AFTER SUNSET ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ABSOLUTELY TANK OVERNIGHT. EXTREMELY EFFICIENT CAA AND AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FURTHER SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING, WARRANTING AN
UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AS LOW AS -18 DEGREES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS DANGEROUS, BITTER, HYPOTHERMIA-INDUCING COLD. MAKE SURE YOU'RE
COVERING ALL EXPOSED SKIN AND LIMITING TIME SPENT OUTSIDE. IF YOU
LOSE POWER, CLOSE BLINDS/CURTAINS TO KEEP IN HEAT, AND STUFF RAGS
OR TOWELS UNDER EXTERIOR DOORS TO KEEP THE COLD OUT.
EVEN THE EXTENDED FORECAST OFFERS NO RELIEF FROM THE TUNDRA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME FOR THE NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
DO NO FAVORS FOR THE ROAD CONDITIONS. THE SUN MAY HELP OUT WITH
SOME PARTIAL MELTING OF THE SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE GROUND MIDWEEK,
BUT DON'T BANK ON IT. PREPARE FOR ROADS TO BE SLICK AND DANGEROUS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK. ON THE BRIGHT
SIDE, THERE IS NO PRECIP (LIQUID OR FROZEN) EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SATURDAY. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A 90% CHANCE OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION; IN OTHER WORDS, COLD AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS INCREASING COVERAGE OF FZRA AFTER 02Z. AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
SATURATED AIR OVER SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT. DURING THIS TIME,
FRONTAL DEPTH WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS FL015. THIS ELEVATED WARM
LAYER WILL LIFT EAST FROM 09Z TO 15Z, RETURNING SLEET AND LIGHT
SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. FOR THE 00Z TAFS, MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 21Z HRRR AND RAP WERE USED FOR PRECIP TYPE
DETERMINATION.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL END LATE SUNDAY. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ001-007-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ001-007-010.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ002>006-008-009-
011>017-020>024.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ053>055-090>092.
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB
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