636
FXUS64 KMEG 250926
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- CRIPPLING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, LEADING TO WEATHER-RELATED POWER OUTAGES AND
TREACHEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO
AT TIMES. THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION IN
TANDEM WITH AN INCREASE IN 925 MB - 850 MB WAA IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE AND
RADAR OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THEREFORE, A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES APPEAR TO BE
CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH SLEET AND
LIGHT SNOW IN AREAS ROUGHLY BELOW 20 F AND AREAS ABOVE RELIABLY
REPORTING FREEZING RAIN. THE 20 F ISOTHERM HAS STRADDLED A LINE
FROM WESTERN PANOLA COUNTY, MS NORTHEAST THROUGH WEAKLY AND HENRY
COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL
HEAVY ICING EAST OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME MUCAPE HAS BEEN ABLE TO ADVECT NORTH INTO THIS
REGION WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VIA GOES IMAGERY. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
CONVECTION, THE HRRR/RAP BRING UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF QPF IN AREAS
EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN
CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO
0.5" THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS DYING OUT WITH
THE SECOND WAVE NOT FAR BEHIND. EXPECT YET ANOTHER WAVE OF ALL
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES. SNOW AND SLEET ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTH, SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FAVORED IN THE 'TRANSITION
ZONE' AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE WHERE THE BULK OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCUR DUE TO WAA IN THE MIDLEVELS WITH A 1-5 DEGREE C WARM NOSE.
THE WAA IN THE MIDLEVELS IS STEMMING FROM A WEAK, STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI RESIDING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z HREF WANTS TO WARM AREAS
LIKE TUPELO AND ABERDEEN TO 33-37 DEGREES, WHICH DEPICTS PURE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SKEWING ICE
ACCUMULATION TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WHILE TUPELO IS
32 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM, THIS STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD UNPARK
ITSELF IN THE COMING HOURS. AS THE FRONT SINKS, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND FILTER IN COLDER AIR.
ANOTHER FACTOR SKEWING ICE ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA IS RAINFALL
RATES. RAPID RAIN RATES WILL HINDER ACCRETION AND LEAD TO RUNOFF.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT TO SEE HOW WARM THIS AREA
GETS AND HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE CAN REMAIN.
MODELS DO STILL FAVOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER
THE COMING HOURS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MS TO THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. REPORTS FROM THE FIRST WAVE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.10-0.30"
OF ICE, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (50-70%) OF 0.25-0.75" BY THE END OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 0.50" ARE DEVASTATING TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND TREES.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT.
THE TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS TO STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET, BUT
THERE IS A BRIEF TIME PERIOD AND FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A GLAZE
OF ICE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL DISRUPTIONS, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES
OF ACCUMULATING A 0.25". THIS LOCATION UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDES
WITH THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT FROM ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST WAVE. THE WARM NOSE
IS OVER PERFORMING SLIGHTLY, WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREATENING THE ENTIRE REGION. FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE
BRIEF IN NORTHERN PORTIONS AND INCREASE IN LONGEVITY AND COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTH. AREAS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE KY/TN AND AR/MO
BORDERS WILL STILL FAVOR SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO MIX IN. NONETHELESS, TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS,
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, FOR AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END, EXTREMELY COLD AND BRUTAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE SNOW PACK, SOME AREAS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SUN MAY HELP OUT WITH
SOME PARTIAL MELTING OF THE SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE GROUND MIDWEEK,
BUT SIGNIFICANT MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE,
THERE IS NO PRECIP (LIQUID OR FROZEN) EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A 90% CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION; IN OTHER WORDS, COLD AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KNQA RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF FZRAPL MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE ARKLAMISS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED SURGE OF WARM
SATURATED AIR. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 03Z RAP AND HRRR TRACK
WELL WITH THE 00Z TAFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY PL TOWARD 12Z, AS THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER BEGINS TO LIFT EAST.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-
010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-
010.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ002>006-008-
009-011>017-020>024.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ053>055-
090>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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