907
FXUS64 KMEG 251234
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- CRIPPLING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, LEADING TO WEATHER-RELATED POWER OUTAGES AND
TREACHEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO
AT TIMES. THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN, CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A LARGE
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE KGWX VAD HAS THIS WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME ON FULL DISPLAY WITH A HEAVILY ENLARGED,
CLOCKWISE-TURNING HODOGRAPH UP TO 3KM. HOWEVER, THE LOWEST KM OF
THE GWX VAD, AND THE LOWEST 3 KM FROM KNQA, HAVE STEADILY BEGUN
TO TURN COUNTERCLOCKWISE. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS STARTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AND THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS STRENGTHENING.
THE SNOW/SLEET LINE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, AS SEEN ON KPAH AS CC MINIMA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
RIVER CONFLUENCE.
REGARDLESS OF ANY COLD ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NOSE OF
THE 850 MB JET WILL KEEP STRONG WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 850 MB -
700 MB THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREFORE, WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE MEANTIME AND PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MUCAPE REMAINS, AS EVIDENT GOES OBSERVATIONS DISPLAYING LIGHTNING
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS RECENT AS 1210Z AND CELLULAR-LIKE
STRUCTURES ON RADAR. LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY WITHIN
THESE CELLS AS THEY MOVE NORTH, BUT ICE ACCRETION WILL BE LIMITED
BY HEIGHTENED RAINFALL RATES IN THE FORM OF RUNOFF. ADDITIONAL
ICE ACCRETIONS OF UP TO .5" ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FREEZING
RAIN CORRIDOR, WHICH STILL STRETCHES ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN A LINE FROM TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY, MS NORTH
THROUGH HENRY COUNTY, TN AND AREAS EAST.
WEST OF THE WARM ADVECTION, RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY IN ALOFT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH
SHOWS RH ABOVE 700 MB STEADILY DECREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SAME GUIDANCE COOLS THE WARM NOSE WITH TIME WITH SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH MID- MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS DEVELOP
FRONTOGENETIC-LIKE APPEARANCES TO AREAS OF SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE WHERE LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL
COULD OCCUR WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1"
THROUGH LATE-MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE FIRST WAVE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS DYING OUT WITH
THE SECOND WAVE NOT FAR BEHIND. EXPECT YET ANOTHER WAVE OF ALL
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES. SNOW AND SLEET ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTH, SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE FAVORED IN THE 'TRANSITION
ZONE' AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH. THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE WHERE THE BULK OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCUR DUE TO WAA IN THE MIDLEVELS WITH A 1-5 DEGREE C WARM NOSE.
THE WAA IN THE MIDLEVELS IS STEMMING FROM A WEAK, STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI RESIDING ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z HREF WANTS TO WARM AREAS
LIKE TUPELO AND ABERDEEN TO 33-37 DEGREES, WHICH DEPICTS PURE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SKEWING ICE
ACCUMULATION TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WHILE TUPELO IS
32 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM, THIS STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD UNPARK
ITSELF IN THE COMING HOURS. AS THE FRONT SINKS, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND FILTER IN COLDER AIR.
ANOTHER FACTOR SKEWING ICE ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA IS RAINFALL
RATES. RAPID RAIN RATES WILL HINDER ACCRETION AND LEAD TO RUNOFF.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT TO SEE HOW WARM THIS AREA
GETS AND HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE CAN REMAIN.
MODELS DO STILL FAVOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER
THE COMING HOURS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MS TO THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. REPORTS FROM THE FIRST WAVE HAVE RANGED FROM 0.10-0.30"
OF ICE, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (50-70%) OF 0.25-0.75" BY THE END OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 0.50" ARE DEVASTATING TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND TREES.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT.
THE TRANSITION ZONE LOOKS TO STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET, BUT
THERE IS A BRIEF TIME PERIOD AND FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A GLAZE
OF ICE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL DISRUPTIONS, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES
OF ACCUMULATING A 0.25". THIS LOCATION UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDES
WITH THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT FROM ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FIRST WAVE. THE WARM NOSE
IS OVER PERFORMING SLIGHTLY, WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREATENING THE ENTIRE REGION. FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE
BRIEF IN NORTHERN PORTIONS AND INCREASE IN LONGEVITY AND COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTH. AREAS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE KY/TN AND AR/MO
BORDERS WILL STILL FAVOR SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO MIX IN. NONETHELESS, TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS,
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, FOR AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END, EXTREMELY COLD AND BRUTAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN
WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THE SNOW PACK, SOME AREAS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SUN MAY HELP OUT WITH
SOME PARTIAL MELTING OF THE SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE GROUND MIDWEEK,
BUT SIGNIFICANT MELTING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE,
THERE IS NO PRECIP (LIQUID OR FROZEN) EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A 90% CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 60% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION; IN OTHER WORDS, COLD AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITH PREDOMINANTLY PL AT JBR
AND MEM, FRZAPL AT MKL, AND FRZA AT TUP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD RESPECTIVELY AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHES HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AT MKL AND MEM.
SOME TS HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM GOES IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND COULD REACH TUP THROUGH 14Z BEFORE GUIDANCE
REMOVES ANY MUCAPE. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL QUICKLY APPROACH
LEADING UP TO 18Z, CLEARING JBR AND MEM AROUND THEN. MODELS HAVE
SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY SN AND PL, THAT WILL THEN
SWING THROUGH FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MKL AND TUP WILL CLEAR LATER
AROUND 19Z, WITH THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AT MEM AND JBR DRYING
OUT BEFORE ARRIVING AT MKL AND TUP. CIGS WILL STILL BE LOW MVFR
TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES BEGINNING TO LIFT AS TIME PROGRESSES
TOWARDS 00Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CIGS CONTINUING TO LIFT WITH VFR POSSIBLE AT
JBR AS EARLY AS 06Z TOMORROW. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT MEM, MKL, AND TUP WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-
010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-
010.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ002>006-008-
009-011>017-020>024.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>052-088-089.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TNZ053>055-
090>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB
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