176
FXUS64 KMEG 271845
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DENSE FREEZING FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT ICING AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS, LOW VISIBILITY, AND STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TRAVEL.
- PROLONGED EXTREME COLD WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE STILL IMPACTED BY
POWER OUTAGES.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL NOT HELP MELT ANY
SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE ROADS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ANALYZED OVER WEST TEXAS. AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED A STEADY CLIMB SINCE MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE SLOW THAW
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
WILL PEAK AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, WITH
LOW TO MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN WARMER AND HIGHER MOISTURE
AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNDOWN AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL IN THE LOWER 20S
AND TEENS AND RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING,
FREEZING FOG WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE. THE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BECOME. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION AND OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING, EFFECTIVELY KEEPING FREEZING FOG PATCHY AND ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NBM IS NOT HANDLING VISIBILITY OR FOG POTENTIAL
WELL AT ALL AND THE HREF PROBS HAVE ONLY BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST 2 RUNS. WE DECIDED TO GO WITH 12Z HREF VISIBILITIES WITH A
BLEND OF CONSSHORT GUIDANCE, RESULTING IN DENSE FREEZING FOG
ACROSS A BIG PORTION OF WEST TN, SOUTHEAST AR, AND NORTH MS.
AFTER CLOSE COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DENSE FREEZING FOG AND LIGHT ICING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS THAT DO GET DENSE FREEZING FOG.
IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING FOG AND ICING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT,
RESIDUAL ICE, SNOW, AND SLEET WILL REFREEZE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON
ROADWAYS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT CREATING PRIME CONDITIONS FOR
BLACK ICE. TRAVELING IS STILL STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AS SURFACE
STREETS, NEIGHBORHOODS, BRIDGES, AND OVERPASSES WILL BE AT HIGH
RISK OF BLACK ICE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT FOGGY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY AND GIVE
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A
DELAY IN SURFACE HEATING, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. TO
THE SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE MELTING IS EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS, ESPECIALLY FOR SHADED AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN WELL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN NEARLY A WEEK
AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS WARMTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LREF GUIDANCE IS STILL PINGING ON 20 TO 30%
PROBABILITIES FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SNOW PROFILE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL. NONETHELESS, A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS CARRIED
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH NO BIG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND.
BITTER ARCTIC COLD WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
WIND CHILLS DIP INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS FOR MANY ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL FINALLY BREAK FREE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL UNDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. GROWING
INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT MEM AND MKL. CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE MET AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY HIGH AGREEMENT TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO FOR FZFG AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE HIGHER. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT A
HIGH CIRRUS DECK MOVING OVER FROM TX MAY PLAY SPOILER TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO BANK ON. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS
UP AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
WINTRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AJC
AVIATION...CAD
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